Looking back and going forward

TechTalk
By Ken Doyle

It’s the time of year for every technology columnist to present a “Top Ten” list of trends and predictions. I’m not going to follow suit (especially since I did a Top Ten list last month) but I’d like to explore just a few of the really significant trends in personal technology. These developments stood out in 2004, and promise to make 2005 an event-filled year for technology watchers.

The end of an era: IBM recently announced the sale of its personal computer business to Chinese manufacturer Lenovo. This move was prompted by low profit margins and IBM’s increased focus on consulting and software for enterprise markets, but it also marks a significant change in mindshare for “Big Blue,” once the giant of the PC industry. More consolidation in the desktop computer business is likely for 2005, as margins continue to get thinner, and PCs increasingly become a commodity item.

Here a blog, there a blog: There was a time when everyone had to have a web page. Not so anymore—the latest online craze, blogs (or web logs) will continue to grow in 2005. These online journals enable anyone who is so inclined to document every detail of his or her life, for all the online world to read. A related trend, the growth of Really Simple Syndication (RSS) protocols, enables widespread distribution of blogs, much as traditional newswire services distribute content. Blogs can be entertaining or even useful, but the vast majority of the content is of little interest to anyone except the blogger.

Voice-over-Internet Protocol (VoIP) comes of age: A couple of years ago, I remember talking to family living overseas, using my Internet connection. The call sounded worse than a really bad cell phone, with frequent dropouts, static, and lag, but it was fun, and essentially free. VoIP has come a long way, and 2005 should see the emergence of this technology as a serious competitor to traditional phone networks—although it will no longer be free.

Home, sweet digital home: The buzzword of the last two years, digital convergence, is finally becoming a reality. Digital delivery of news, music, video, and photography over broadband Internet connections has transformed home entertainment and focused attention on the personal computer as the center of it all. Apple announced its strategy two years ago, to make the Mac the “digital hub,” and its competitors were quick to follow. In 2005, expect to see more and more PC makers jumping on the digital lifestyle bandwagon.

Best wishes for a happy holiday and a digital New Year.